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History tells us that the yield curve has been a pretty good indicator of a future recession, That makes sense because in a normal environment, the uncertainty that comes with longterm lendingA yieldcurve inversion is among the most consistent recession indicators, but other metrics can support it or give a better sense of how intense, long, or farreaching a recession will be ForAn inverted yield curve is when the yields on bonds with a shorter duration are higher than the yields on bonds that have a longer duration It's an abnormal situation that often signals an impending recession In a normal yield curve, the shortterm bills yield less than the longterm bonds Recession Watch What Is An Inverted Yield Curve And Why Does It Matter The Washington Post Yield curve recession indicator